Eagles vs. Commanders: Here’s How a Win or Loss in Week 11 Will Impact Their NFC East Title Chances

Just as they were in Week 10, NFL fans are being treated to a highly-anticipated divisional matchup on Thursday Night Football in Week 11. Tonight, the Washington Commanders (7-3) head north to battle the Philadelphia Eagles (7-2).

Washington, led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, has held first place in the NFC East for most of the year. But last Sunday, Philadelphia leaped over them. The Eagles rose after a road victory over the Dallas Cowboys, while the Commanders dropped, following a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Their Week 10 results also switched their respective places in the NFC hierarchy. Philadelphia now sits second in the conference. Washington, owners of the second wild card slot, are sixth. A Commanders win tonight would cause another equivalent swap.

Both teams will maintain solid postseason odds regardless of today’s finish. Per the NFL’s official site, the Eagles’ 93% probability will fall to 88% with a loss, and rise to 97% with a win. Washington’s 85% likelihood jumps to 95% in a victory and slips to 81% in a defeat.

Tonight’s final doesn’t have a major influence on either squad’s playoff chances, but it does drastically impact who will claim the NFC East crown. According to SportsLine, each franchise’s division title odds will experience a “better than a 40% swing” based on the TNF finish.

• Washington NFC East Champion: Current – 58.4%; 80.2% after win, 36.3% after loss
• Philadelphia NFC East Champion: Current – 41.6%; 60.4% following win, 17.8% following loss

The Eagles and Commanders are each 2-0 against the NFC East this season. Barring a tie, one of them will remain unbeaten in the division heading into Week 12.

Who is expected to win the Week 11 TNF clash?

Historically, short weeks are notoriously tough for road teams. Since TNF became Amazon-exclusive in 2022, home teams are 22-18 in the regular season. Home squads have also won three consecutive contests this year. Overall, though, home teams on TNF in 2024 are 5-4.

Tonight’s game is at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. Sportsbooks expect the Eagles to emerge victorious and are favoring them by 3.5 points (numbers courtesy of DraftKings).

• Moneyline: Washington +160, Philadelphia -192
• Spread: Washington +3.5, Philadelphia -3.5
• Total: Over/Under 48.5

The Around the NFL staff unanimously selected Philadelphia to beat Washington. All five people involved predicted the margin to be seven points or fewer. The Commanders’ opportunity to prove them wrong comes at 8:15 p.m. E.T.