After a disappointing 2022 season and a poor start to the 2023 campaign, Mercedes decided to reinstate James Allison as the technical director in April of last year. Since Allison, who is one of the most successful F1 designers in history, helped design Mercedes’ W15, there was immense optimism in the Silver Arrows camp heading into this season. However, after the first four races, that optimism in Toto Wolff and Co. is quickly dissipating. In fact, the W15 is perhaps worse off and the team has no answer. To pile on their misery, F1 expert Karun Chandhok has made a concerning revelation.
Mercedes’s obvious goal in 2024 was to close the gap to reigning champions Red Bull. However, instead of closing the gap, the W15 has fallen behind even the Ferraris, who Mercedes beat to second last season.
Mercedes have fallen behind to such an extent that even Toto Wolff has already conceded defeat to Max Verstappen and Co with a statement after the Japanese GP. Discussing the statement made by Wolff on the Sky Sports F1 podcast, experts revealed the numbers behind his comments.
Chandhok revealed. “I think the best Mercedes was 45 (seconds) off the win. But if we take the Red Bulls out of it, they were still 25 seconds behind the best non-Red Bull which is a huge amount in a Grand Prix.
Chandhok also highlighted Wolff’s optimistic comment after the race to Ted Kravitz. The Austrian boss admitted the first stint was terrible but it started looking up during the second stint at Suzuka.
Commenting on that, Chandhok gave a reality check with some numbers. He revealed that in the first stint, the Mercedes cars lost 11 seconds to Carlos Sainz in the first 15 laps. Meanwhile, in the second stint, which was better according to Wolff, they still lost 0.6 seconds/lap to Sainz.
With that in mind, Chandhok concluded by adding, “I think they were the comments of a frustrated man”. Despite all the frustration, Wolff is trying everything in his power to make the most out of the next 18 months before the regulations reset in 2026.
Toto Wolff is not ready to suffer for the next 18 months
Mercedes started the Japanese GP weekend on a positive note with Lewis Hamilton labeling FP1 the best session so far this year. However, the positive feelings quickly turned into disappointment after qualifying.
Hamilton qualified in P7 and his teammate, George Russell, was two places down in P9. The race brought more misery and another brutal reality check for the team.
This continued suffering has made Toto Wolff extremely cautious, even for the 2026 season. The Austrian knows the competition is far ahead but he’s waiting for the reset in 2026 with the new regulations.
However, does that mean the ambitious Wolff is already throwing in the towel for this year and 2025? Certainly not! In a conversation with GP Blog, when asked if he still hopes to win races in 2024, Wolff said,
“I wouldn’t want to let that ambition go, certainly not next year. But ’26 is, there is a big reset, which certainly provides the most realistic opportunity for any other team to beat Red Bull. But there is one and three quarters seasons before that, and I don’t want to go through much more suffering in the next, whatever it is, 18 months“.
Wolff has accepted the reality of not being on par with Red Bull at the moment as he understands there is a big gap between the two teams. However, Mercedes is staying optimistic for the coming 18 months while looking forward to the regulations reset in 2026.
