The NFL MVP race has boiled down to two major players: Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. Here’s a look at why each quarterback deserves MVP.
🏆 @PFF_Moo‘s Race to the MVP 🏆
Rodgers or Mahomes?
Who will take home the award?
Full breakdown through Wk 15 ⬇️
— PFF (@PFF) December 23, 2020
The Case For Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers’ MVP case rests on both numbers and intangible factors. Firstly, Rodgers leads the league in two major passing categories: touchdowns (40, the only player at that threshold right now) and passer rating (83.5).
Passer rating is probably the best statistic to consider when looking at how “effective” a quarterback has been all season, and the fact that Rodgers leads the league in this category shows how efficient he’s been.
Additionally, Rodgers has also thrown for a league-low four interceptions among quarterbacks playing more than 10 games. The Packers can consistently rely on Rodgers to manage a mistake-free game, and that has proven to be big this season.
After all, look at the Buccaneers last year. Jameis Winston may have led the league in passing yards, but the fact that he threw 30 interceptions also meant that Tampa Bay was nowhere near a contending team.
Further, if you want to analyze how responsible Rodgers is for his team’s success you can also look at the fact that he has significantly fewer weapons than Mahomes.
Rodgers may have Devante Adams, but outside of him Rodgers has been airing it out to players you wouldn’t really consider superstars.
Additionally, Rodgers has also been the more accurate passer this year. His completion percentage of 69.6% ranks fifth in the league while Mahomes is at 14th (67.3). His passer rating of 118.0 also leads the league and is almost eight clear of second place.
Aaron Rodgers has the highest pass TD rate and lowest INT rate in the NFL this season.
Only 3 QBs have done that for a full season and all 3 won NFL MVP: Tom Brady (2010), Steve Young (1992), and Ken Anderson (1981). pic.twitter.com/Z4EeMV5oqb
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) December 25, 2020
The Case For Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes’ case rests more on the fact that he’s performed better consistently. The Chiefs are 13-1 with a strong chance to go 15-1 while the Packers are 11-3.
The last three times a team lost at most one game (2007 Patriots, 2011 Packers, 2015 Panthers), their respective quarterbacks won MVP.
Additionally, Mahomes also has a case to throw for 5,000 yards once again with 4,462 yards on the season already. Not only would that be the second time he’s done that in his three years as a starter, but that’s also 300 clear of second place.
Mahomes also comes right behind Rodgers in passing touchdowns with 36 and his quarterback rating of 83.4 is just barely behind Rodgers.
The Chiefs quarterback is also tied for the second best passer rating this season with 110.6. Mahomes also perhaps has the edge when it comes to creating flashy plays. Oftentimes, he will make something out of nothing, leading to those “wow” moments that really stand out for voters.
Mahomes also doesn’t seem to have an “off-day”. While Rodgers has had games where he’s looked “simply average”, the same can’t be said about Mahomes.
Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t… Patrick Mahomes for MVP. pic.twitter.com/nwYzZG9DBd
— Hunter Donelson (@hdonelson04) December 21, 2020
NFL MVP Race: The Verdict
The edge right now goes to Mahomes. He has put his team in a better position to win and the fact that the Chiefs have only loss is a testament to his play.
Mahomes can slip up these last two weeks, in which case Rodgers may just win. The race is neck-tight, and it’s still anyone’s award right now. Mahomes holds a slight advantage for now, but that can all change.