How Can Daniil Medvedev Crack the Indian Wells Code As Per Top Analysts? Here’s The Answer

Daniil Medvedev will kickstart his Indian Wells 2024 campaign on Saturday night. Having finished runner-up last year, he will want to go one step further this time. Unsurprisingly, the Russian is a favorite to do so.

A recent statistical analysis showed why, revealing that he sticks to his strong points, outdoing the rest of the field in those elements. A self-professed hard court specialist, Medvedev is known for grinding out results from long rallies and matches.

He is one of the best defensive players right now. The courts at Indian Wells are one of the slowest hard surfaces at the top level. Hence, the perfect venue for his gameplay. The World No.4 is not ashamed to play to his strengths, acknowledging that he is amongst the least aggressive players as per an ATP Tour article.

Tennis Insights on X (formerly Twitter) published an in-depth statistical analysis ahead of the Indian Wells 2024. Their study, taking into consideration data over the last 52 weeks, revealed Medvedev plays the least attacking game of the top eight seeds. His In Attack score was only 23%, even lower than the ATP average of 25%.

The seeds join the action @BNPPARIBASOPEN

Take a look at the top 8️⃣ seeds and how their 52-wk avg. stack up across the #Insights

Who’s going to outperform their avg. as the week progresses?#TennisInsights | @atptour pic.twitter.com/nzYUPm2UdC

— Tennis Insights (@tennis_insights) March 8, 2024

However, Daniil Medvedev had a Steal score of 40%, outdoing everyone by some distance. This metric refers to the percentage of points won from defensive positions, the tour average being 34%. He also surpasses the top 3 and the rest of the field with a Baseline Battles score of 57%. This stat refers the the quantity of points won when both opponents are playing from the baseline. He is also joint first with Novak Djokovic for the best return, as per this data.

This shows that Medvedev’s best tennis comes out with his back to the wall. When he goes defensive, he becomes one of the hardest players to beat. Paired with the slow conditions at Indian Wells, he emerges as a title favorite.

Can Daniil Medvedev go one step further at Indian Wells this year?

Medvedev’s 2023 run at Indian Wells saw him drop only two sets until the final. He defeated Alexander Zverev, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Frances Tiafoe, in that order, to reach the summit clash. However, he fumbled the title match against Carlos Alcaraz.

Armed with one of the best defensive mindsets, Daniil Medvedev will want to cross the final hurdle in 2024 and win his first Indian Wells Masters title. He will begin his journey against Roberto Carballes Baena. He could potentially face Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth round and Holger Rune in the quarter-finals.

A potential clash against Novak Djokovic awaits in the semi-final while the final could possibly be a rematch against Alcaraz, or even a 2024 Australian Open final rematch against Jannik Sinner. Regardless of the opposition, Medvedev knows he has the capability and the resilience to go all the way.